SPEAKER_02 0:00

And you are listening to iTalk 1067 FM, The Voice of the Mountain. We are thrilled to have our meteorologist, Dan Holliday, on the phone. Dan, how are you?

SPEAKER_00 0:10

I'm great. It's so good to talk to you.

SPEAKER_02 0:13

I I listen to you all the time. You know, he's always giving us the, you know, the weather report and what we're facing here in the White Mountains and everything. So we appreciate talking to you. And I the reason I called on you, Dan, is that I I thought about all the stuff that's been rolling around with El Nino, Super El Nino, all these different things. And uh right now, I understand we're in our monsoonal season, right, here in Arizona.

SPEAKER_00 0:40

Yes, absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 0:41

And how does that differ? Like, so we're not in El Nino yet or La Niña, right?

SPEAKER_00 0:47

Well, we're actually just starting to transition into El Nino, but as you had mentioned, we aren't really into the more significant part of El Nino. That's going to really kind of kick in, it looks like uh late summer into the fall, but it is just starting to transition now.

SPEAKER_02 1:03

Okay, so it's starting to transition. And what is an El Nino?

SPEAKER_00 1:08

That's a great question because we throw around these fancy words. Um uh the El Nino name originated. It's actually um uh means the Christ child. And some of the folks that were out at sea, you know, years and years and years ago, well before we were around, uh discovered some anomalies that were occurring along the equatorial Pacific region. And so what they realized were that the trade winds blew different directions, there was more rain, there was more active weather. And then over time, uh meteorologists, climatologists uh realized that there was uh certain types of patterns that would set up. And when they set up for a certain period of time, they would influence the overall weather for the entire country. And it's it's really interesting what happened. So El Nino means a warming of the uh the waters, equatorial Pacific waters. And right now, uh they measure this because it's in different parts of the world. Um, it is it is increased from about 0.7 degrees Celsius to 2.1 Celsius degrees Celsius. And that doesn't sound like a lot of an increase, but it really is because it causes the uh you know the the waters to be warmer and it ultimately causes more moisture to flow into parts of the country, which can ultimately affect our monsoon season.

SPEAKER_02 2:33

Oh, okay. So the the patterns start very soon, right? I've heard that El Nino can last up to and and what's the difference? Let's start back up a little bit. What's the difference between El Nino and La Niña?

SPEAKER_00 2:47

Yeah, La Niña is its opposite. It is a cooling of the Pacific waters. And it does, I mean, it's a wide variety of things. It typically means uh lesser amounts of severe weather, um, lesser in terms of extremes for us, it means uh more significant hurricane season, but El Nino is pretty much the opposite. So oftentimes um the interesting thing is, is in El Nino, and before we get too deep into what may happen here in Arizona, El Nino oftentimes can mean more severe weather across the country. And it doesn't necessarily mean that uh you'll have lots more storms, but the storms you do get may be more significant than what you typically get. So more extremes in the storm. So it's it's it's really, if you look at one, it's the opposite from the other. So El Nino means warmer uh waters in the Pacific equatorial region, and and La Niña means cooler, and both influence our patterns differently.

SPEAKER_02 3:51

And we've kind of been in more of La Niña, right, in Arizona in recent years. Is that right?

SPEAKER_00 3:58

We have been, and in fact, over the last, I want to say six to eight months, maybe a little longer, we've been in what's called insone neutral. And that means that you're neither in El Nino nor La Niña. You're you're kind of in that pattern where you're like, yeah, everything is just pretty much normal from what we would expect. So there's no difference in temperature enough in the Pacific equatorial region to really call it one or the other.

SPEAKER_02 4:24

So with El Nino, then we hear everybody talking about there's some uh forecasters and different things that talk about this Super El Nino or a very strong El Nino. What is that exactly?

SPEAKER_00 4:36

Yeah, and I'll I'll I'll talk about this. There's um I was just kind of looking over some of the specifics from the Climate Prediction Center. Um, and absolutely the Super El Nino, they're referring to it as, um, when you go into detail with the Climate Prediction Center, they're saying that it could really, really ramp up this winter into early next year. And it could typically be uh it may be one of the strongest El Nino that we've had um since 1950. So that's going way, way back. Wow. And that means, yeah, that means more on the line of extreme weather that we're seeing a little bit more extreme weather, and it means different things for different parts of the country. And truly, there are some parts of the country where it may not mean much of anything at all. They're just simply not affected as much by an El Nino. So it doesn't mean everybody nationwide is going to be hit with this wide span of uh active weather. It just means certain parts of the country will be a little bit more often than normal.

SPEAKER_02 5:39

Okay. So what are is your best guess or your what you're thinking for the high country in Arizona or all of Arizona looking at this, the months ahead?

SPEAKER_00 5:51

Yeah, well, typically what um the El Nino itself means for us um is that the overall weather pattern in an El Nino brings elevated chances for both extreme heat and increased precipitation. And that means a little bit more of a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and even wildfires through the later part of the year. Now, in a super El Nino, that would be a little bit more enhanced. So, specifically, let's talk about monsoon season. We do anticipate a wetter than normal monsoon season for much of the state. Um, the El Nino atmospheric pattern uh pretty much pulls in more tropical moisture from the southwest. And we would expect that because if there is warmer temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region, it's going to create a little bit more moisture. And that sets the stage for heavier rain events, um, especially in the late summer. And we'll also get more intense summer heat. We've been pretty warm here lately, and uh that that kind of kicks in um some brutal desert heat in and around places like Phoenix, not necessarily close to us, but it gives you an idea in Arizona in general, and that of course drives up their risk of fires. And then in the fall and winter, El Nino's most direct correlation is with the cold season. We typically have a shift in the jet stream, and what that does is bring uh wetter and occasionally or stormy winters to the southwestern part of the country. So that may mean folks to the in northern Arizona, the White Mountains, could get more snow than usual and sustain rainfall here in the lower elevations. So it again, it goes back to more extremes, but in Arizona, that's primarily what it means.

SPEAKER_02 7:35

Okay. So extreme heat for a while with some some heavier rain showers, and then maybe a good snow load, which we desperately need. So possibly this El Nino to Super El Nino could help fill our lakes back up and some of that for us. That that could would be the hopeful stance, right?

SPEAKER_00 7:55

Yeah, yeah, we need that desperately because I'm telling you, it's if it has been dry, and we we could you we could use the moisture. So um we're crossing our fingers hoping this happens. The other thing we can tell you too, when it comes to an El Nino, is if you want to look back into history and maybe you get on Google and you just start doing your searches, um, even a Super El Nino or an El Nino in 2026 may not mean the same thing as a Super El Nino in 1950, or even the last El Nino we had, by the way, was in 23 and 24. And and they they just don't they don't mean the same thing. They they typically, I mean, some folks could get more rain, more snow than normal, others may not, but they oftentimes set up in slightly different areas. And as we know, when it comes to the winter time, when we're talking about snow prediction, um, just a few inches of snow or a few feet in elevation make all the difference in the world of who gets completely snowed in and who barely sees anything. And it's the same way with the El Niños, they're different every year. And so when this one really starts to kick in this year, we'll get a pretty good handle on how it's going to play out. We'll start to see the patterns shape up and uh and how they they they set up in place, and then we'll know okay, this is probably what we're going to expect more of and where it's going to be occurring when it comes to more of a localized area.

SPEAKER_02 9:21

Wow. I'm I'm so glad you know what you're doing, Dan.

SPEAKER_00 9:25

Well, you know, we can never claim to that 100% in weather because oftentimes uh I I always say when we think we've got Mother Nature fooled, she turns around and fools us.

SPEAKER_02 9:36

There you go. Now, looking out a little further, if we have an El Nino, Super El Nino, does this set up a pattern or El Nino's generally for a few years? Um, or is it just like 18 months and then we we have to wait to see if we have a La Nino or an El Nino later, or how does it work?

SPEAKER_00 9:53

That's a really good question. I I'm glad you asked that because uh every one of them is different. And specifically for this, um, the El Nino advisory uh has been issued. And so let's just briefly talk about what an El Nino advisory means. It means that conditions are favorable where sea surface temperatures are at least a half a degree Celsius or greater, and they may stick around for about three months. In this case, um it does look like a stronger El Nino is going to start kicking in from November through January. And then once we get into February or so, uh it's probably gonna be prevalent all the way into the winter. But once we get to February, it just really, really gets hard to see how long it's gonna stick around because there could be something that could change it. And uh that's almost why they do monthly updates on the climate, because uh every month they say, well, you know what? Uh we see this hanging around a little bit longer. It's going to end a little bit sooner. So that will give us a pretty good handle on when things go. But I would say till January or February would be our best bet that we'll be at his strongest, and we know it will last until at least then.

SPEAKER_02 11:08

Okay. And I love how you mentioned where the name comes from. Tell us that one more time.

SPEAKER_00 11:15

Yeah, the El Nino, the El Nino name, and I want to get this exactly right, so I'm gonna pull this up here. Um, it originated uh from it was actually sort of uh in the 1600s. It was fishermen along the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador. And what they noticed was uh the ocean surface temperatures would be warmer, and they oftentimes found that it was at its peak around Christmas, and it disrupted their their catches when they were out uh fishing. And so they they called it um uh El Nino de Navidad, and so they referred to it as the the Christmas child or the Christ child. And overall, scientists, you know, over the next you know few centuries decided, well, we're gonna shorten this a bit and just call it El Nino. And by the 20th century, that's where we got the El Nino name. But it began hundreds of years ago, way, way, way back a long time ago, uh, with a fisherman. And so they were the ones to find out what was going on.

SPEAKER_02 12:14

That's so cool. I love that story. And so the big thing is it's good, it's going to be very interesting in the months ahead. And the big thing is, guys, you need to listen to Dan Holiday and your forecasts here on uh Magic 1017 and QCountry 925 and also iTalk 1067 FM. Dan, thank you so much. Anything you all uh anything else you want to add about the El Nino?

SPEAKER_00 12:40

Well, you know, I would say that um really when it comes down to it, and we've learned this in meteorology for a long time, and that is the fact that uh weather is really a day-to-day thing. You can say that we're gonna have a certain pattern, but what we found is that oftentimes one thing that occurs one day, specifically a thunderstorm complex in the monsoon season, will be a domino effect to the next day, and it will make something last longer or end quicker. And so just staying with us day to day for updates on the radio is the best way to go about it. But just kind of looking out the next uh seven days or so, um, it's interesting because temperatures look like they're going to be in the mid to upper eighties. Um, we will have some chances of thunderstorms, but for the most part, um, all the way into uh the following week, it does look like windy conditions are going to prevail and things are going to be fairly quiet, but it won't be long before the monsoon season really starts to kick in.

SPEAKER_02 13:40

Yeah, it's kind of funny, I have to tell you, because um I it it's so many of us have you know little blinders on. And I live in a part of Taylor where we've had those last three storms. They were, I mean, heavy, just poured on, water running everywhere. And I get a hold of uh I get a hold of my buddy at Timber Mace and I go, is there any way we're gonna be at a stage one fire restriction? And he goes, Janine, did you look at the watch duty and where the fires are and stuff? And I go, Yeah, we've just been rained on a ton. And he goes, Well, it's been very spotty, Janine. It's not you're not the only one. So I realized, yeah, those storms were just right over our house, I swear. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:17

That that's just it. And when it when it affects us here at home, and we have a certain you know, kind of weather, uh, you know, the neighbor down the street, or even, you know, whether it be up in the mountains or whatever, they may have a whole different thing happen there or nothing at all. And they're like, I don't know what you're talking about. So it really, it really is a day-to-day thing, and it really also is um uh one of those things where we're just you know gonna deal with uh day-to-day weather, and that's of course why we keep you updated day-to-day, because it's always changing.

SPEAKER_02 14:47

All right. So, guys, meteorologist extraordinaire. Dan Holliday, thank you so much. It's been so fun talking to you today. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 14:55

Oh, thank you. Thank you, Janine.

SPEAKER_02 14:57

Okay, you have a wonderful, wonderful uh evening, okay? All righty, everyone. Dan Holliday, our meteorologist checking in on El Nino. You have been, you know, caught up. I won't say warned.

unknown 15:08

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 15:09

Keep it right here. iTalk 1067 FM, the voice of the mountain. And you are listening to iTalk 1067 FM, the voice of the mountain. I have Steve Carvajal on the phone because tomorrow is really an important day. Steve, uh tomorrow we start early voting, correct?

SPEAKER_01 15:26

That's right, Janine. We get to start early voting tomorrow for everybody in the White Mountains. You get to go down and vote early. And as we always used to say, vote early, vote often. I'm teasing, I'm teasing, of course, we don't really vote often. We only vote early.

SPEAKER_02 15:43

Only vote one time. That's right. So um uh the the early voting places, and some people have their mail-in ballots if you requested those. It is the primary, everybody, super important time. And early voting, where can we find out how to early vote?

SPEAKER_01 16:00

Well, there's a number of places that we have, Janine, that are that uh our new recorder has set up. And remember, folks, that we have a trailer, the county has a trailer that you can early vote in, or if on some of these locations I'm gonna mention in a minute, you'll be able to go inside and vote. It depends. You'll you'll have to just look for the sign that says vote here, whether it's sitting at a at a uh like a a paneled trailer or if it's sitting uh next to the entrance of a building. So the first place we start is at the Snowflake Flea Market.

SPEAKER_02 16:35

Snowflake Flea Market, okay.

SPEAKER_01 16:37

Yeah, 1655 Main Street in Snowflake, and that starts tomorrow, folks, from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

SPEAKER_02 16:46

Okay, awesome. So 10 to 3 at the Snowflake Flea Market, and that's that mobile trailer with the county you're talking about.

SPEAKER_01 16:53

I believe that will be the mobile trailer that we're talking about there. And you'll see it says Navajo County and vote here. And then on the 25th, which is the day after tomorrow, we have the White Mountain Lakes Community Center at 1785 Edmund Circle. And that again is from 10 to 3. That may be inside. I do not know. You'll have to look at some of them. And on the 26th, on uh that will be what day would that be? That would be Friday.

SPEAKER_02 17:25

Uh-huh.

SPEAKER_01 17:26

You'd be will be in Heber at the Navajo County Public Works Building. So that one will be inside. Again, that's from 10 p.m. to 3 p.m. 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. And that's in Heber at the Navajo County Public Works Building, 2188 Country Club Drive in Heber. And then on the 27th, we will be in Dilcon at the old flea market at uh NR 15 and NR60 at the corner there. That's on June 27th from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. I believe that will be the trailer.

SPEAKER_02 18:06

Oh wow, so they've got a lot of locations. Where and and it'll and it comes to Sholo, I know, and Pine Top Lakeside and everything. What is the website where we can go and have a look and look at these locations and times?

SPEAKER_01 18:19

Yeah, you so you can go on to the Navajo County uh um website and then go under the recorders office. Look for under positions or whatever they got on there. I can't remember because I don't have the website up right now. But you'll be able to go on and just look for the Navajo County Recorders Office, and they'll have that posted on the recorders. They may have it posted also on the um on the county's main webpage. They should, you know. But yet again, we never count on the county to do much of the art. You know, we can always come on, be nice, Dave. Be nice, yeah. I didn't say what I wanted to say if you need to know that I I you know Dave Marshall's doing a great job as he gets settled in there as our new recorder. He's doing an awesome job. So we're expecting a lot of good things. Now, folks, one thing to remember about this too is when you if you have an early um mail-in ballot, rather than drop it as a drop box, you know, go and take it to these uh early voting centers and hand it in. If you want to fill it out, you can go take it and hand it in. You can do that. Another thing you can do is you can take your mail-in ballot to the actual um precinct or or polling place when you paint when you uh other people are voting on uh July 17th. So just remember, or 21st remember it is. Just you take don't if if for whatever reason do not put your mail-in ballot in the mail. That is the most unsafe and insecure way you can possibly cast your vote.

SPEAKER_02 20:00

Yeah, it's nice to you need to drop it off at one of these locations. Or the county, or the county recorder's office if you're up there in Holbrook, right?

SPEAKER_01 20:07

Take it up there. The county's office is and that's 100 East Coat Talkers Drive. The County Recorder's office will be open for early voting from June 24th tomorrow through July 17th, which is the last day for early voting. You can go any day there from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. That's at the Navajo County Recorder's Office, 100 East Coat Talkers Drive in Holebrook, and that's from June 24th through July 17th, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

SPEAKER_02 20:44

Yeah, so important. So important. Okay, guys, you've been warned. Early voting starts tomorrow, okay? Now, also, you've been running all over the place um doing your security work. What's been going on?

SPEAKER_01 20:56

Oh, it's been awesome. I mean, we've had uh a long run here um where uh Congressman Biggs, he's taken a um, you know, he had a bit of a break. And so we had 12 days here that we've been on the road hitting multiple spots every day, pretty much, and just had a great time. I mean, the campaign trail is interesting. It was the first time I've really done it like this. And of course, as you know, I put together the security detail for cars and big, and we've been you know covering him since actually the first time we did it was back um the end of September. So we've been working with him now for like nine months, and he is just he is just a great. I mean, we've had a great time. People loved it. Um it's amazing. So we'll go to some places like for example we were at the Saturday community and it was up at the DC Ranch Community Center, which is kind of a brand new thing. And they had planned on like a hundred to a hundred and fifty people, and it was just packed. There was probably two hundred plus people in there. And everybody's just excited to hear what our n our upcoming governor Biggs has to say. You know, it's very easy when you're running against someone who's so ineffective, you know, like uh like Hobbes has been. I mean, Hobbes has taken us from the top to top five in affordability and in wage growth to the bottom. I think we're 47th in wage growth and 45th in affordability in just four years. You know, she screwed up our water deal. She has failed to get the waiver for the gas taxes, which when you look at your gas bill, right? You're you're when you go to the pump, you fill up. Realize, folks, that the reason you're paying four dollars plus for gas right now in Arizona is because I use this term loosely, Governor Hobbs failed to get the waiver for the state taxes because we buy a lot of our gas from uh California, where they do these exotic blends and they put all these horrendous taxes on it. The federal government has to get us this waiver and it must be asked for every year. It's always granted by the governor. And Hobbes, for the last few years, being a moron that she is, failed to ask us. So when you're paying that, that's 59 cents a gallon, folks.

SPEAKER_02 23:33

Extra, yeah, extra gallon of gas. And and the thing I think is really funny is that we've been talking to you know Sylvie Allen and uh Walt Blackman and all these people that about the new budget and all the great things that were passed. And it's kind of funny because she wouldn't let anything go through of uh Trump's tax decreases and all these things. And now they got it all in the budget, and now suddenly after that, after the budget, she's claiming that she get she cut the taxes. And it's so funny because she's breaking more of the thing. She turned it, but she turned it down seven times before. She turned it down seven times. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 24:05

We've we tried to get that deal, the the the the legislature, and that includes Warren Peterson and Steve Montenegro and all our good Republicans. The Democrats fought it uh the whole way. They march in lockstep like a bunch of little ants. And really, I mean, we should stomp on them just like ants. But the fact is that they tried to stop this. They tried to stop people with Social Security from you know from not having to pay taxes on a lot of your social security benefits. They wanted to stop people from uh nothing. I mean, this is ridiculous.

SPEAKER_02 24:42

Well, I think the reason, too, that she did not make the call on the gas thing. She wanted they want overall to to hurt um the state to make it make Trump look worse, but people have suddenly realized, wait a second, Trump enacted all this, but it's our governance blocking it all.

SPEAKER_01 24:58

Yeah. 100%.

SPEAKER_02 25:00

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 25:00

I mean, we gotta keep this, you know, let everybody know that folks, and it's not really a partisan issue to ask for the waiver on the gas tax. Right, right. It should not have been even an issue at all. Yeah, that's just a given. I'm sorry, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 25:17

No, you're good, you're good. Okay, the big thing we want to remind everybody uh early voting starts tomorrow, and you can go to the County Recorders, uh County Recorder, the the Navajo County website and go to County Recorder and find those locations, right, Steve?

SPEAKER_01 25:32

Absolutely. And remember, folks, that photo a photo ID, a state-issued photo ID, is required. Only citizens can vote in Arizona elections.

SPEAKER_02 25:45

Amen.

SPEAKER_01 25:45

If you're an illegal and you're hearing this, if you go there, you know, I'm not gonna tell you that ICE isn't gonna be there. But just understand illegals do not get to vote in Arizona elections, despite what Hobbes and Fontez won. Yeah. Illegals stay out of our elections. Okay. We'll hunt you down.

SPEAKER_02 26:05

All right, Steve. And Steve, can you hang on the line for a second? I gotta get one more thing from you. All right, everybody, keep things rolling here. You're listening to ITalk 1067 FM, the voice of the mountain.